October 2024

It’s October and, as Spring delivers a bracing mix of weather events from rain and wind to snow and hail in some parts, we’re looking forward to the longer, warmer days ahead.

Interest rate speculation is rife after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold at 4.35% last month. Economists are now predicting it may be several months before rates fall. It’s a different story in the United States where the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by half a percentage point in September and forecast two more cuts before the end of the year.

Australia’s inflation rate fell to 2.7% in August, down from 3.5% the previous month in the lowest reading in three years. Falling petrol prices and energy bill relief helped drive the slowdown. The jobless rate remained steady in August at 4.2% with the number of unemployed people falling by 10,500 in seasonally adjusted terms. Spending may be down but our net worth rose for the seventh consecutive quarter. Total household wealth was 9.3% higher than a year ago, largely thanks to rising house and land values. Consumer confidence is also positive with an increase in the ANZ-Roy Morgan index on last year’s figures.

The S&P/ASX 200 index hit an all-time high near the end of the month at 8862 points and a low of 7687 a few weeks earlier. It closed the month at a respectable 8266, up 2.2% for the month and 7.89% for the year. China’s plan to stimulate its economy has led to stronger commodity prices with mining and energy stocks the main beneficiaries.

Market movements and review video – October 2024

Stay up to date with what’s happened in the Australian economy and markets over the past month.

Investing cycles – Lessons from the Magnificent 7

When it comes to investing in shares, it’s often said that time is your friend.

The data shows that investing small amounts consistently over time and riding out the ups and downs of the market by holding onto your investments for the long term, can produce a healthy return.

Over the past two decades, the top 500 US companies averaged a 10 per cent annual return and Australia’s S&P ASX All Ordinaries Index recorded an average annual return of 9.2 per cent.ⁱ

Those returns have been delivered despite some catastrophic events that sent the markets plummeting including the dot-com bubble crash, the Global Financial Crisis, and the effects of Covid-19.

It takes grit to hold on as the markets plummet, but the best way might be to avoid the hype and tune out the ‘noise’. It can be a trap checking prices every day and week, causing heightened stress and anxiety about your portfolio, a recent example being the mid-2024 Microsoft outage which impacted briefly investor confidence. We can help you maintain a longer-term view, so it you have any concerns give us a call.

The cycle of endless phases of good and bad times are a constant for markets. Most cycles follow a pattern of early upswing, after the market has bottomed out followed by the bull market, when investor confidence is strong and prices are rising faster than average. Then the market hits its peak as prices level out before negative investor sentiment drives a bear market. Finally, the bottom of the cycle is reached as prices are at their lowest.

There are also certain seasonal market cycles that may be helpful in buying and selling decisions. Note, though, that there are always exceptions.

In Australia, April, July, and December have tended to be the strongest months on the All Ordinaries Index. But these patterns have weakened a little over time, with lower average gains in April, July, and December more recently. Performance is usually the lowest in June.ⁱⁱ

November and April have been the strongest months for US shares for the past 30 years, with average monthly gains of 1.9 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.

The Magnificent Seven

The performance of Nvidia and the Magnificent 7 is a real-time lesson in market dynamics and cycles.

Despite the rise and rise of seven US technology stocks in the past 18 months – known as The Magnificent 7 – their price pattern has, more or less, followed these seasonal cycles.

The seven stocks – Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla – returned more than 106 per cent in 2023 alone.ⁱⁱⁱ

In the first half of 2024, their prices rose around 33 per cent on the US S&P 500 index while the rest of the index increased by only 5 per cent.

But another story has been emerging in recent months. The Magnificent 7 has now become the Magnificent 3, thanks to intense excitement around artificial intelligence (AI).

Nvidia, Alphabet and Microsoft leapt into the lead on the index, doubling the performance of the other four.^iv

Nvidia has been the market darling, with its price almost tripling in 12 months. But prices have been volatile at times. A correction in June knocked the company from the biggest in the world, a title it held briefly before the plunge, to number three after Microsoft and Apple.

Some describe the activity as a bubble that is due to burst. Others say the Magnificent 7 stocks are undervalued and have further to go.

Either way, be wary about getting caught up in the hype that surrounds rapidly rising prices.

Keeping a cool head and taking the time to understand what you are investing in, and the potential risks will help you stay focussed on your long-term investing goals.

Get in touch if you’d like to discuss your investment portfolio and to review in the context of your long-term investment goals.

i 2023 Vanguard Index Chart: The real value of time – Vanguard
ii The ’best’ and the ‘worst’ months for shares – asx.com.au
iii The magnificent 7: A cautionary investment tale – Vanguard
iv The Kohler Report – ABC News

Estate planning gives you a final say

Planning for what happens when you pass away or become incapacitated is an important way of protecting those you care about, saving them from dealing with a financial and administrative mess when they’re grieving.

Your Will gives you a say in how you want your possessions and investments to be distributed. Importantly, you should also establish enduring powers of attorney and guardianship as well as a medical treatment decision maker and/or advance care directive in case you are unable to handle your own affairs towards the end of your life.

At the heart of your estate planning is a valid and up-to-date Will that has been signed by two witnesses. Just one witness may mean your Will is invalid.

You must nominate an executor who carries out your wishes. This can be a family member, a friend, a solicitor or the state trustee or guardian.

Keep in mind that an executor’s role can be a laborious one particularly if the Will is contested, so that might affect who you choose.

Around 50 per cent of Wills are now contested in Australia and some three-quarters of contested Wills result in a settlement.ⁱ

The role of the executor also includes locating the Will, organising the funeral, providing death notifications to relevant parties and applying for probate.

Intestate issues

Writing a Will can be a difficult task for many. It is estimated that around 60 per cent of Australians do not have a valid Will.ⁱⁱ

While that’s understandable – it’s very easy to put off thinking about your own demise, and some don’t believe they have enough assets to warrant writing a Will – not having one can be very problematic.

If you don’t have a valid Will, then you are deemed to have died intestate, and the proceeds of your life will be distributed according to a statutory order which varies slightly between states.

The standard distribution format for the proceeds of an estate is firstly to the surviving spouse. If, however, you have children from an earlier marriage, then the proceeds may be split with the children.

Is probate necessary?

Assuming there is a valid Will in place, then in certain circumstances probate needs to be granted by the Supreme Court. Probate rules differ from state to state although, generally, if there are assets solely in the name of the deceased that amount to more than $50,000, then probate is often necessary.

Probate is a court order that confirms the Will is valid and that the executors mentioned in the Will have the right to administer the estate.

When it comes to the family home, if it’s owned as ‘joint tenants’ between spouses then on death your share automatically transfers to your surviving spouse. It does not form part of the estate.

However, if the house is only in your name or owned as ‘tenants in common’, then probate may need to be granted. This is a process which generally takes about four weeks.

Unless you have specific reasons for choosing tenants in common for ownership, it may be worth investigating a switch to joint tenants to avoid any issues with probate.

Having a probate is favourable if there is a refund on an accommodation bond from an aged care facility.

Rights of beneficiaries

Bear in mind that beneficiaries of Wills have certain rights. These include the right to be informed of the Will when they are a beneficiary. They can also expect to hear about any potential delays.

You are also entitled to contest or challenge the Will and to know if other parties have contested the Will.

If you want to have a final say in how your estate is dealt with, then give us a call. 

i Success rate of contesting a will | Will & Estate Lawyers

ii If you don’t, who will? 12 million Australians have no estate plans | Finder

Investing mistakes to avoid

Investing successfully and improving your investment portfolio can be as much about minimising mistakes as trying to pick the ‘next big thing’. It’s all about taking a calm and considered approach and not blindly following trends or hot tips.

Let’s delve into some of the most prevalent investment mistakes and look at the principles that underpin a robust and successful portfolio.

Chasing hot and trending shares

Every so often there are industries or shares that are all over the media and you may begin to worry that you are missing out on something. Jumping on every trend is like trying to catch a wave; you might ride it for a bit, but you’re bound to wipe out sooner or later. That’s because the hot tips and ‘buy now’ rumours often don’t pass the fundamentals of investing test.

The key is to keep a cool head and remember that the real winners are often the ones playing the long game.

Not knowing your ‘why’

What would you like your investment portfolio to achieve? Understanding your motivations and goals will help you to choose investments that work best for you.

If you want to build wealth for a comfortable retirement, say 20 to 30 years down the track, you can afford to invest in riskier investments to play the long-term game. If you have already retired and plan to rely on income from your portfolio, then your focus will be on investments that provide consistent dividends and less on capital growth.

Timing the market

Timing the market involves buying and selling shares based on expected price movements but at best, you can only ever make an educated guess and then get lucky. At worst, you will fail.

As the world-renowned investor Peter Lynch wrote in his book Learn to Earn: “Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves”.ⁱ

Putting all the eggs in one basket

This is one of the classic concepts of investing but it’s worth repeating because, unless you are regularly reviewing your portfolio, you may be breaking the rule.

Diversifying your portfolio allows you to spread the risk when one particular share or market is performing badly.

Diversification can include different countries (such as adding international shares to your portfolio), other financial instruments (bonds, currency, real estate investment trusts, exchange traded funds), and industry sectors (ensuring a spread across various sectors such as healthcare, retail, energy, information technology).

Avoiding asset allocation

While diversification is key, how do you achieve it? The answer is by setting an asset allocation plan in place and reviewing it regularly.

How much exposure do you want to diversify into defensive and growth assets? Within them, how much should be invested in the underlying asset classes such as domestic shares, international shares, property, cash, fixed interest and alternatives.

Making emotional investment decisions

The financial markets are volatile and that often leads investors to make decisions that in hindsight seem irrational. During the COVID-19 pandemic, on 23 March 2020 the ASX 200 was 35 per cent below its 20 February 2020 peak.ⁱⁱ By May 2021, the ASX 200 crossed the 20 February 2020 peak. Many investors may have made an emotional decision to sell out during the falling market in March 2020 but then would have missed the some of the uplift in the following months in.

Seeking out quality and trustworthy financial advice can help to minimise investment mistakes. Give us a call if you would like to discuss options for growing your portfolio.

i From the Archives: Fear of Crashing, Peter Lynch – From the Archives: Fear of Crashing – Worth
ii Australian Securities Markets through the COVID-19 Pandemic – Australian Securities Markets through the COVID-19 Pandemic | Bulletin – March 2022 | RBA

Strategies for long-term investing

Given the inherent volatility of security prices in capital markets, it is useful to remind ourselves of strategies that investors can utilise to meet their investment goals.

This is important when constructing and positioning a diversified portfolio of assets, a challenge that most financial advisers face daily. Reminding ourselves of the fundamentals of portfolio construction can help investors position portfolios appropriately in times of crisis and volatility.

Exploit a long-run time horizon

Investors with a long horizon do not need short-term liquidity, giving them an edge during market sell-offs. As markets fall, long-run investors have often generated excellent returns by buying quality distressed assets across major asset classes.

Additionally, if the market rewards illiquid assets with a higher risk premium, it makes sense that investors over-allocate to such assets, as it is unlikely that they will need to sell during bouts of market volatility. Pockets of traditional asset classes like corporate bonds, small-cap equity, and emerging market equity offer the opportunity for long-run investors to generate superior returns over time.

Whilst many would like to describe themselves as long-term investors, this time horizon can shorten very quickly. During financial and economic turmoil, both institutional and individual investment horizons tend to shorten due to immediate cash flow needs or because of psychological factors. The last thing that any investor wants to do is sell an asset into a volatile and illiquid market, where bid–offer spreads can widen materially, and asset prices can fall well below fair value.

The free lunch

Diversification is the rare free lunch available for all investors: it can reduce portfolio volatility without reducing its return. A key challenge to achieving diversification is reducing the dominance of equity risk in a balanced portfolio. Even if diversification tends to fail in crises (as correlations spike across asset classes), it can still be useful in the long run. This matters more for long-run investors who face less liquidation pressure during market drawdowns.

Most portfolios have positive exposures to the equity market and to economic growth. This directional risk is difficult to diversify away, making those assets with a negative correlation to equities a valuable addition. Despite yields being at all-time lows, cash and high-quality government bonds and gold can play an important role to play in most portfolios.

Diversification, of course, has limitations, one of which is the tendency for correlations to approach one during crises. Many good fund managers distinguish themselves by managing downside risk instead of just relying on diversification. A strong risk management framework and avoidance of large drawdowns is key in generating good long-run compounded returns.

Risk-free is return-free

Developed market central banks have taken the actions that they have with a defined monetary policy transmission mechanism in mind. One of the channels of monetary policy is the asset prices and wealth channel, with lower interest rates and quantitative easing expected to spur demand for higher risk assets. Risk-free assets like cash and government bonds no longer generate a positive inflation-adjusted yield and are return-free. Long-run investors can position for ‘the portfolio rebalancing effect’ that is likely to dominate investment flows in the next decade.

Expected portfolio returns can be improved by increasing the weight of the most volatile asset class. The classic approach is to raise the weight of ‘high-risk, high-return’ equities and reduce the weight of ‘low-risk, low-return’ assets such as cash and government bonds. Taking more risk in this way, and getting rewarded for it, is an easy way to boost long-run returns for investors.

Minimising costs can come at a cost

Passive investing minimises trading costs. However, some costs are worth paying. For example, buying an equity index fund costs more than investing in a bank deposit, but the equity risk premium should make the cost worthwhile in the long run. In general, investors should allocate more to active products the less they believe in market efficiency. Minimising costs is not always smart; being cost-effective and avoiding wasteful expense is.

The importance of being selective

Market outperformance – through the compounding of returns – can help investors increase their ability to achieve their financial goals. Excess returns can be an important driver of wealth creation, and actively managed funds offer the opportunity to outperform the market. Even seemingly small amounts of excess return can lead to significantly better outcomes.

Over the intermediate term, asset performance is often driven largely by cyclical factors tied to the state of the economy, such as corporate earnings, interest rates, and inflation. The business cycle, which encompasses the cyclical fluctuations in an economy over many months or a few years, can, therefore, be a critical determinant of market returns.

As volatility is ever-present in capital markets, protection in the form of safe-haven assets and portfolio diversification will be increasingly important for investors. However, investors must now acknowledge that returns from defensive assets will likely be far less than historic averages. Due to central bank action, riskier asset classes like equities appear likely to attract increasing inflows over the coming decade. The traditional methods of portfolio construction – a long-run horizon, diversification, cost-control, and active investing – remain the best approach to generating sustainable long-run returns.

To find out more about diversifying your investments, please call us today.

Source:
Reproduced with permission of Fidelity Australia. This article was originally published at https://www.fidelity.com.au/insights/investment-articles/strategies-for-long-term-investing/

This document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider these matters before acting on the information. You should also consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statements (“PDS”) for any Fidelity Australia product mentioned in this document before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. The PDS can be obtained by contacting Fidelity Australia on 1800 119 270 or by downloading it from our website at www.fidelity.com.au. This document may include general commentary on market activity, sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions that should not be taken as investment advice. Information stated herein about specific securities is subject to change. Any reference to specific securities should not be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold these securities. While the information contained in this document has been prepared with reasonable care, no responsibility or liability is accepted for any errors or omissions or misstatements however caused. This document is intended as general information only. The document may not be reproduced or transmitted without prior written permission of Fidelity Australia. The issuer of Fidelity Australia’s managed investment schemes is FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited ABN 33 148 059 009. Reference to ($) are in Australian dollars unless stated otherwise.
© 2022. FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited.

Important:
This provides general information and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important to consider your particular circumstances before deciding what’s right for you. Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.

Buying shares for kids: a gift that keeps on giving

Many parents and grandparents worry about how to help the children in their lives achieve financial independence. But the value of long-term investment can seem like a dry and complicated idea for kids to get their heads around.

In fact, many young people would like to know more about money, according to a Young People and Money survey by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission MoneySmart website. The survey found more than half of the 15-21-year-olds surveyed were interested in learning how to invest, different types of investments and possible risks and returns. What’s more, almost all those young people with at least one investment were interested enough to regularly check performance.

One way to introduce investment to children may be to begin a share portfolio on their behalf. The child can follow the progress of the companies they are investing in, understand how the market can fluctuate over the short- and long-term, as well as learn to deal with some of the paperwork required, such as filing tax returns.

How to begin

Setting up a share portfolio doesn’t need to be onerous. It’s possible to start with a minimum investment of around $500, using one of the online share trading platforms. Then you could consider topping it up every year or so with a further investment.

Deciding on which shares to buy comes down to the amount you have available to invest and perhaps your child’s interests.

If the initial investment is relatively small, an exchange traded fund (ETF) may be a useful way of accessing the hundreds of companies, bonds, commodity or theme the fund invests in, providing a more diversified portfolio.

ETFs are available in Australian and international shares; different sectors of the share market, such as mining; precious metals and commodities, such as gold; foreign and crypto currencies; and fixed interest investments, such as bonds. You can also invest in themes such as sustainability or market sectors such as video games that may appeal to young people.

Alternatively, buying shares in one company that your child strongly identifies with – like a popular pizza delivery firm, a surf brand or a toy manufacturer – may help keep them interested and excited about market movements.

Should you buy in your name or theirs

Since children cannot own shares in their own right, you may consider buying in your name with a plan to transfer the portfolio to the child when they turn 18. But be aware that you will pay capital gains tax (CGT) on any profits made and the investments will be assessable in your annual income tax return.

On the other hand, you could buy the shares in trust for the child. While you are considered the legal owner the child is the beneficial owner. That way, when the child turns 18, you can transfer the shares to their name without paying CGT. Your online trading platform will have easy steps to follow to set up an account in trust for a minor.

There is also some annual tax paperwork to consider.

You can apply for a tax file number (TFN) for the child and quote that when buying the shares. If you don’t quote a TFN, pay as you go tax will be withheld at 47 per cent from the unfranked amount of the dividend income. Be aware that if the shares earn more than $416 in a year, you will need to lodge a tax return for the child.

Taking it slowly

If you are not quite ready to invest cash but are keen to help your children to understand share investment, you could consider playing it safe by playing a sharemarket game, run by the ASX.

Participants invest $50,000 in virtual cash in the S&P/ASX200, a range of ETFs and a selection of companies. You can take part as an individual or a group and there is a chance to win prizes.

Another option, for children able to work independently, is the federal government money managed website. This is pitched at teens and provides a thorough grounding in savings and investment principles.

Call us if you would like to discuss how best to establish a share portfolio for your child, grandchild or a special young person in your life.

Options and costs of government-funded aged care

If you need help in your home, or can no longer live independently, the Australian Government provides a range of aged care services.

These services are subsidised, but you need to contribute to the cost if you can afford to.

Where to start

The first thing to do is think about what you need. You might want to stay in your own home, but need some help with domestic chores. Or you might be ready to start looking at options for longer-term residential care.

Talk to your family or friends about what you want. This will help you get the right care when the time comes.

Once you have an idea of your needs, contact My Aged Care. They will:

• check your eligibility
• assess your care needs
• assess your financial situation

It’s important to plan ahead, as this process can take time. There are waiting lists for some services.

To discuss your options, speak to us or speak to an Aged Care Specialist Officer (ACSO) at a Services Australia service centre. 

Care and help at home

To help you stay in your own home for as long as possible, the government provides subsidised home care. This is to help with everyday tasks like shopping, cooking and transport, as well as with personal and nursing care.

There are two types of home care:

• entry level care — Commonwealth Home Support Programme for people who can manage but need support with a few tasks
• more complex care — Home Care Packages for people who need more support on an ongoing basis

What you pay

If you can afford to do so, you may have to pay:

• a basic daily fee — a standard amount that everyone has to pay
• an income-tested fee — an amount that will vary depending on your income and assets

If you can’t afford to pay, you may be able to get financial hardship assistance.

Check My Aged Care’s fee estimator to see how much you might have to pay for home care

Residential aged care

If you can no longer live at home, you may choose to move to an aged care home (sometimes called a nursing home or residential aged care facility). Care is available 24 hours a day. This can be a short-term stay or a permanent move.

What you pay

If you can afford to do so, you may have to pay:

• a basic daily fee — a standard amount that everyone has to pay
• an income tested fee — an amount that will vary depending on your income and assets
• accommodation payment — an amount for your room, based on its quality, location and features

The accommodation payment is the biggest cost. You can pay this as a:

• bond or lump sum up-front, which is refundable (called a Refundable Accommodation Deposit, or RAD)
• daily amount (called a Daily Accommodation Payment, or DAP)
• combination of RAD and DAP

If you can’t afford to pay, you may be able to get financial hardship assistance.

Check My Aged Care’s fee estimator to see what accommodation payment you might have to pay.

Selling or keeping your family home

You may be thinking of selling the family home to pay the bond (RAD). Or maybe you’re wondering whether it’s better to rent it out to help pay the daily amount (DAP)?

You have 28 days after you go into aged care to decide how to pay for your accommodation. You must pay the DAP until the RAD is paid:

• if you decide to pay a RAD within those 28 days, you have 6 months to pay the RAD
• if you decide to pay a RAD after those 28 days, it is due as agreed between you and the provider

You may need professional financial advice to work out whether selling or renting your home is the best option, so call us today and we can discuss this option with you.

Either way, be aware that what you choose to do with the family home may affect the Age Pension assets test.

If you sell the home, its value will count towards the Age Pension assets test.

If you rent out the home, its value may count towards the Age Pension assets test, depending on when you moved into aged care.

If you keep the home without renting it out, it is exempt from the Age Pension assets test for two years from the date that you moved into aged care. (This may vary if you are, or were, a couple when you moved into aged care.)

Speak to a Services Australia Financial Information Service (FIS) officer for more information.

Short-term help

Short-term help is available, either in your own home or in an aged care home. There are different types of care:

• transition care (or after-hospital care) — for when you’ve been in hospital and need help with your recovery
• respite care — for when you or your carer needs a break (for a few hours, a few days, or longer)
• short-term restorative care — for when you’ve had a setback and want to get your independence back

Private retirement accommodation

As well as government subsidised aged care homes, there are many private retirement accommodation options. For this kind of accommodation, you pay the full amount yourself.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has information about types and costs of retirement homes but please reach out if you need further assistance in this area.

Source:
Reproduced with the permission of ASIC’s MoneySmart Team. This article was originally published at https://moneysmart.gov.au/living-in-retirement/aged-care
Important note: This provides general information and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account.  It’s important to consider your particular circumstances before deciding what’s right for you. Although the information is from sources considered reliable, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. You should not rely upon it and should seek qualified advice before making any investment decision. Except where liability under any statute cannot be excluded, we do not accept any liability (whether under contract, tort or otherwise) for any resulting loss or damage of the reader or any other person.  Past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns.
Important
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.