While many Australians had the opportunity to enjoy two consecutive long weekends in April, as we move into May the focus is now on the federal election.

The month of April was marked by economic uncertainty and global trade tensions that drove market declines and volatility. These events are anticipated to influence the RBA’s cash rate decisions, as will the recent decline in core inflation to within the target range.

Australian shares slumped in early April but recovered with the ASX 200 up 2.5% by month’s end. Nonetheless, the index is down nearly 1.3% since the start of the year and may fall further according to some commentators. In the United States, the S&P500 regained strength after falling to its lowest level in a year.

Unemployment increased slightly in the latest figures, up by 4.1% and consumer sentiment declined 6% in April, revealing consumer unease about developments in Australia and abroad associated with US tariff announcements.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered sombre news for Australia, predicting lower growth than forecast earlier this year. Despite the slowdown, the IMF says global growth remains “well above” recession levels.

Market movements and review video – May 2025

Scams: knowledge is protection

Scammers operate in an ever-evolving space and the scams of today are far more sophisticated than they have ever been, targeting even the most financially literate individuals.

In addition to the financial impact from a scam, it can affect your mental health as well as damage your reputation, so understanding how scammers operate is the best way protect yourself from falling victim.

A growing trend

The statistics provide a sobering reminder that no one is immune—no matter how experienced or cautious they may be – it can happen at the click of a button.

According to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) Scamwatch, Australians lost an alarming $3.18 billion to scams last year. 

The average individual loss from scams is significant, with individual losses rising by more than 50 per cent last year, to an average of almost $20,000.ⁱ This is due, in part, to scammers using new technology to lure and deceive victims and it underscores the serious financial toll scams can take.

Some of the most common scams include:

• Investment scams: Investment scams continue to be a major issue, with losses reaching around $1.2 billion in 2024. These scams often involve fraudulent online trading platforms or fake cryptocurrency schemes, designed to lure investors with promises of high returns and minimal risk.
• Impersonation scams: Fraudsters are increasingly using sophisticated tactics to impersonate trusted organisations, such as government bodies, banks, and financial advisers. In 2024, impersonation scams accounted for $700 million in losses, with scammers using fake emails, phone calls, and even text messages to trick victims into revealing sensitive personal information or parting with funds.
• Romance and relationship scams: These scams often involve scammers establishing a personal relationship with victims before manipulating them into sending money. In 2024, these types of scams led to losses of $250 million, highlighting the emotional and financial damage they can cause.

While these figures are shocking, they also reflect the changing nature of scams. Scammers are no longer relying on clumsy, obvious frauds. Instead, they are using highly professional methods, often tailored to the specific interests, financial knowledge, and behaviours of their targets.

Why everyone is vulnerable

As scammers become more creative, even the most experienced and financially literate individuals are at risk. There are several reasons why this is the case.

Sophistication: Scammers now use advanced technology and psychological manipulation to trick their victims. They impersonate respected brands and financial institutions, and they can craft highly convincing emails, websites, and phone calls that look indistinguishable from legitimate communications.

Cryptocurrency and new technologies: The rise of digital currencies and decentralised finance (DeFi) platforms has created new opportunities for scammers to exploit. These markets are largely unregulated, making them more vulnerable to exploitation by criminals.

Deepfakes: Scammers are increasingly using deepfake technology to make their fraudulent schemes more convincing and harder to detect. By creating hyper-realistic videos or audio recordings, they can impersonate trusted individuals, such as company executives, colleagues, or even loved ones, to manipulate victims to respond to requests for urgent assistance or money. This manipulation of digital media makes it much more difficult for victims to distinguish between what’s real and what’s fabricated.

Protecting yourself

Despite the growing sophistication of scammers, there are steps you can take to protect yourself. It’s crucial to stay alert and use a combination of scepticism, knowledge, and due diligence.

Be cautious when receiving unsolicited offers or requests, whether by phone, email, or social media. If you weren’t expecting to hear from a company or individual, don’t rush to react. Don’t click on links. Take a step back and verify the legitimacy of the contact by using an email or contact number that you locate online. Always verify account details this way before transferring any money.

Scammers are constantly evolving their tactics, so it’s crucial to stay informed. Regularly educate yourself on the latest scam trends and familiarize yourself with common warning signs. Agencies like Scamwatch provide ongoing updates and resources for identifying and reporting scams.

The evolving nature of financial scams means that it’s not enough to simply be cautious; you need to stay proactive. If you’re unsure whether an opportunity is a scam or simply want a second opinion on a financial matter, we’re here to help.

Source for all scam statistics in this article: https://www.scamwatch.gov.au/research-and-resources/scam-statistics

i https://www.scamwatch.gov.au/research-and-resources/scam-statistics

5 steps towards a financially fit retirement

If retirement is just around the corner, the current financial climate may make you feel a little uneasy. Watching the markets fluctuate might leave you worrying about whether your superannuation will be enough to see you through.

It’s not a time for hasty moves, though.
If you are concerned a calm review of your current portfolio and investment strategy may be helpful.

After all, the average Australian spends around 20 years in retirement, so it’s important to create a retirement strategy that takes account not only the current market conditions but also the risks and opportunities in the years ahead.

As one of the most significant retirement assets, your superannuation needs a carefully considered assessment as you approach any new life stage.

Here are five useful tips to help ease you into the next chapter towards retirement.

1. Review your risk profile and portfolio allocation

Check your super portfolio’s risk profile. Generally speaking, investors take a high-growth approach when they’re younger to take advantage of higher returns, however, as with normal share market cycles, there will be fluctuations in the share market. Having a long-term strategy gives you the time to recover from any market downturns before retirement.

Older investors may prefer a more conservative investment strategy that can help to stabilise returns by potentially protecting super from share market volatility.

2. Calculate retirement expenses

Be realistic about the living expenses you’ll need when you finish working. For some, it may cost less to live in retirement because of reduced expenses such as commuting costs and maintaining a work wardrobe.

On the other hand, you may plan to travel more or buy a new vehicle or renovate your home, so these expenses need to be factored in when working out how much you’ll need.

According to the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA), the annual average budget to maintain a comfortable lifestyle in retirement is $73,077 for a couple and $51,805 for a single person.ⁱ

And to maintain a modest lifestyle, ASFA estimates a couple will need $47,470 and a single person will need $32,897. Both estimates assume you already own your own home.

You can find easy-to-use tools on the MoneySmart website to help you work out your budget and also estimate your income from super and the Age Pension.

3. Take action on mortgages and loans

Entering retirement with manageable or small levels of debt can contribute to feeling more financial stable.

If you’ll still be repaying a mortgage after you’ve retired, you could consider downsizing your home or using superannuation funds to pay down the debt, keeping in mind the tax implications and ensuring that you comply with superannuation laws. If you’re considering either of these courses of action, we’d be happy to explain your options and obligations.

4. Check your timing

Understanding when and how you can access your super is important.

You can use your super to fund your retirement when you reach “preservation age”, which is from age 60. You can also use your super to begin a transition to retirement income stream (TRIS) while continuing to work.ⁱⁱ

Alternatively, if you continue working beyond preservation age, you can withdraw your super once you turn 65.

There are also some circumstances in which you can access your super early such as illness and financial hardship, however, eligibility requirements do apply.ⁱⁱⁱ

5. Decide how to withdraw your funds

You may be able to withdraw your super in a lump sum, if your fund allows it. This could be the entire amount you have invested, or you could receive regular payments.

If you ask your fund for regular payments (paid at least once a year), it is known as an income stream and your super account transitions from the accumulation phase – where contributions are made – to a pension.

There are minimum withdrawals that you must make once you commence an income stream from super. For example, for those aged under age 65, a minimum annual withdrawal of 4 per cent of your super balance is required and this drawdown rate increases as you get older.^iv

There is a lot to think about as you approach retirement, so if you’d like to discuss your retirement income options, please give us a call.

i ASFA Retirement Standard, December 2024 – The ASFA Retirement Standard – ASFA

ii Super withdrawal options | Australian Taxation Office

iii When you can access your super early | Australian Taxation Office

iv Payments from super, April 2025 – Payments from super | Australian Taxation Office

The aged care Star Ratings are changing – here’s why

Key points:

• Star ratings for residential aged care homes are changing to a redesigned Compliance rating and incorporating care minute targets for Staffing ratings from October 1, 2025
• 271 stakeholders informed the design changes for the aged care Star Ratings system
• You can use the Find a Provider tool on the government website to gauge a provider’s quality of care

The Star Ratings system debuted in December 2022 and it was designed to help families find high-quality aged care providers.

The five-star scale was introduced in response to the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety. It was meant to distil complex care metrics — Resident Experience (33 percent), Compliance (30 percent), Staffing (22 percent) and Quality Measures (15 percent) – into a digestible score.

The Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care unveiled the Design Changes for Star Ratings for Residential Aged Care – Consultation Findings Summary Report.

The new report, informed by 271 stakeholders, such as older people, families, providers and advocates, confronts the widely reported issues with the Star Rating system.

A striking revelation to emerge from the report was the push for providers to be held accountable throughout the system.

Over three-quarters of the cohort demanded a provider’s Compliance rating drop across all its homes if it was issued a formal regulatory notice for significant or systemic non-compliance.

Although 64 percent of providers were supportive of the measure, they cautioned that home-specific factors – like a good manager or unique challenges – often outweigh corporate oversight.

They wanted to draw a line in the sand between small mistakes and major breaches, like neglecting resident safety, to avoid unjust punishment. The report acknowledges this but leaves the concern unaddressed.

Staffing, the lifeblood of aged care, emerges as another flashpoint. The consultation found 75 percent of stakeholders supported a cap of two stars on the Staffing rating for homes failing to meet both care minute targets – hours of direct care mandated per resident.

Among stakeholders, 87 percent expressed support for incorporating the 24/7 registered nursing requirement into the Staffing rating, with many advocating a two-star cap for non-compliance.

Yet, rural providers cried foul: workforce shortages, not negligence, often thwart them. They begged for exemptions, transparently flagged, lest they’re crushed by urban-centric rules.

Beneath these reforms lies a quieter, yet electrifying, thread: data integrity. Stakeholders didn’t just want new rules – they demanded the numbers be trustworthy.

The Staffing rating’s potency, they argued, hinges on accurate, reliable care minute data, especially when self-reported by providers.

Two-thirds insisted Compliance ratings rebound instantly once non-compliance is fixed, not linger in purgatory for 1 – 3 years.

The report’s call for transparent regulatory notices – 75 percent want System Governor notices published, 85 percent demand financial non-compliance hit ratings – doubles down, promising a window into a home’s soul.

The consultation leaves that gauntlet on the table, a test of whether the system can finally earn trust.

Finally, the report hints at a design revolution: half-star ratings and richer data. A narrow 51 percent endorsed half-stars for the Overall Star Rating, envisioning a ladder of incremental progress – 3.5 stars as a reachable rung, not a distant five.

The push for systemic accountability could unmask corporate culprits, staffing reforms might anchor care in reality and data integrity could rebuild faith among stakeholders. However, the report isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution for the sector.

The consultation’s 271 voices have spoken and their hopes and fears are now in the government’s hands. This year has set the stage for mass reforms, intended to make the landscape easier to navigate and safer for those seeking quality care.

Source: Aged Care Guide
Reproduced with permission of DPS Publishing. This article was originally published on https://www.agedcareguide.com.au/talking-aged-care/the-aged-care-star-ratings-are-changing-heres-why.
Important:
This provides general information and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account.  It’s important to consider your particular circumstances before deciding what’s right for you. Although the information is from sources considered reliable, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. You should not rely upon it and should seek qualified advice before making any investment decision. Except where liability under any statute cannot be excluded, we do not accept any liability (whether under contract, tort or otherwise) for any resulting loss or damage of the reader or any other person. 
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business. Our business does not take any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.

Understanding your retirement income

Work out how long your super or account-based pension will last

There are many variables that come into play when calculating how long your super or account-based pension will last in retirement, and it can be challenging to figure it out alone.

If you’ve transferred your super to a pension account already, then you can use the MoneySmart calculator to help estimate how long your pension will last. And if you haven’t, we recommend you speak to us as we can discuss with you different considerations that will impact how long your account-based pension will last.

Here are some of the fundamental things you need to know about a couple of other retirement income options.

Account-based pensions

Account-based pensions are a popular retirement income product. They fluctuate in value and are linked to the market, so your investment, and therefore your long-term income, isn’t guaranteed.

How long an account-based pension lasts will depend on:

• the amount of initial capital invested
• the return from the underlying investments
• the amount of fees charged
• how much you withdraw as income each year.

The tax benefits of account-based pension are:

• you don’t pay tax on pension payments from age 60
• you don’t pay tax on investment earnings.

In some cases, the underlying investments for most pension accounts are chosen to minimise fluctuations but still provide a bit of growth.

Defensive assets

These include cash and fixed income. In general, they’re lower risk and provide lower returns over the long term.

Growth assets

These include equities and property. They’re usually open to market fluctuation but tend to provide higher returns over the long term.

Generally, defensive assets provide you with a relatively steady return and, therefore, income. However, some growth assets are usually needed to keep your funds growing during your retirement, so they last longer. With an account-based pension, you can mix defensive and growth assets to a ratio that you’re comfortable with.

Annuities

Some annuities could provide you with regular and guaranteed income for either a fixed period or for life. They are more secure than account-based pensions as your income is guaranteed regardless of what the share market and interest rates do.

The downside is that you’re locked in to the agreed income for the whole term or the rest of your life. If your circumstances change, you generally can’t withdraw a lump sum. A lifetime annuity also has no residual capital value, which means you can’t leave it to someone in your will.

The best of both systems

Continuing to build your investments, including your super funds, is still crucial in retirement. They need to keep growing to ensure your retirement income lasts as long as possible.

This means it becomes increasingly important to protect your super growth funds from market falls while still allowing them to grow if the market goes up.

Other things to consider

Age pension eligibility

When it comes to the Age Pension, there are several rules to determine your eligibility. You can learn more by visiting Services Australia, but some of the basic rules are:

• You must have reached your Age Pension age, which is currently 67.
• You must be a resident of Australia.
• You must pass income and asset tests.

If you don’t meet the income and assets tests to be eligible for the Age Pension, you may be able to access the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card (if you pass an income test). This card provides affordable medicine, bulk billed doctor visits and depending on what state you live in, there may be some other concessions that you’re entitled to. You can find out more from Services Australia.

Speaking to a financial planner

With so many options, it’s a good idea to seek help to ensure you’re investing in a way that suits you. Particularly as there are some more complex considerations, such as tax implications. You can talk to us if you need more help planning for your retirement.

Source: NAB
Reproduced with permission of National Australia Bank (‘NAB’). This article was originally published at https://www.nab.com.au/personal/life-moments/work/plan-retirement/income
National Australia Bank Limited. ABN 12 004 044 937 AFSL and Australian Credit Licence 230686. The information contained in this article is intended to be of a general nature only. Any advice contained in this article has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice on this website, NAB recommends that you consider whether it is appropriate for your circumstances.
© 2025 National Australia Bank Limited (“NAB”). All rights reserved.
Important:
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.

Super and planning for retirement

Check your super

When you start to plan for retirement, you’ll need to check your super:

• where it is
• how much you have
• whether you have lost or unclaimed super
• consider consolidating accounts where relevant
• that your details are up-to-date with the ATO and your super funds.

You can do this in 5 simple steps with the ATO’s super health check. For most people it only takes a few minutes.

It’s important to know your total super balance and contributions caps, especially if you plan to contribute to your super. When you check your total super balance, take a note of your concessional and non-concessional contributions. These will indicate if you can make extra contributions or are approaching your limit.

Estimate how much income you will need to retire

The Australian Securities and Investment Commission’s (ASIC) Moneysmart website has information and tools to help you prepare to retire. You can use their:

• Super and pension age calculator to work out when you can access your super and the age pension
• Budget planner to work out your living costs
• Retirement planner to estimate your income from super and the age pension.

Your superfund may also offer a range of calculators to help you. You can access information to help you understand your finances at a free Financial Information Service (FIS) webinar run by Services Australia. You can book to attend a live webinar or watch recordings on their website.

How can I increase my super?

You can increase your super by making extra contributions. Before deciding whether to contribute extra, remember to consider your total super balance and contribution caps. Exceeding the caps may lead to extra tax.

If you decide to contribute extra to your super, the Moneysmart super contributions optimiser will help you work out which type of contribution will give your super the biggest boost.

The following contribution types may be available as options to increase your super (separate eligibility conditions apply):

• concessional and non-concessional contributions
• carry forward unused contribution cap amounts
• downsizer super contribution for people over 55 who have sold their primary residence
• government co-contributions to match your extra personal contributions (up to $500)
• a low income super tax offset (LISTO) payment (up to $500)
• spouse contributions
• capital gains tax retirement exemption contribution for people under 55 if you are selling a small business.

If you are employed, it’s important to remember that your employer’s contributions will count towards your concessional contributions cap.

You may have more than one super account. Consider consolidating your super which means combining super into one account to help save on fees.

Visit ASIC’s Moneysmart to learn more about how to grow your super.

You can also talk to us about the investment options available to help you grow your super.

Considering an SMSF to grow your super?

If you’re thinking about a self-managed super fund (SMSF) to grow your super, visit Moneysmart to learn more about what is required and to understand if an SMSF is right for you.

Accessing your super to retire

When you reach your preservation age and retire, you can access your super to fund your retirement.

You can also access your super:

• when you turn 65 years old
• if you are aged 60 to 64 years of age, under the transition to retirement rules, while you continue to work.

For more information, see Accessing your super to retire.

You can access your super as a lump sum, income stream or a combination of both. Visit Moneysmart to learn more about your retirement income.

After you retire, you may decide to return to work, and you may be able to contribute to your super again. However, it’s essential to consider how this might affect your income, including Australian Government payments (such as the age pension) and your superannuation.

You can discuss your options:

• by using the Financial Information Service – Services Australia
• with your super fund
• by contacting us to understand any potential impacts.

Each fund has governing rules. It’s essential that you talk to your super fund, or talk to us about how you can access your super in retirement and what options are available to you. If you’re a member of an SMSF, understand how you can be paid your benefits.

Tax on super benefits

The tax on super benefits depends on factors like your age, payment amount, and whether your super is taxed or untaxed. If you are 60 years old or older, your super payments may be tax free. For personalised advice, speak to us.

If you’re considering an income stream, check your transfer balance cap (TBC). Exceeding your TBC may lead to extra tax. TBC also applies to a death benefit income stream.

For more information, see Tax on super benefits.

After you retire, even if you don’t need to lodge a tax return it’s important that:

• your contact details with the ATO and your super funds are kept up-to-date
• you regularly review your super on ATO Online
• you check to see if you have any lost or unclaimed super.

Consider seeking professional advice

This information is not financial advice. We can help you make informed decisions about your super and retirement options.

Source: ato.gov.au September 2024
Reproduced with the permission of the Australian Tax Office. This article was originally published on https://www.ato.gov.au/individuals-and-families/super-for-individuals-and-families/super/growing-and-keeping-track-of-your-super/super-and-planning-for-retirement
Important:
This provides general information and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account.  It’s important to consider your particular circumstances before deciding what’s right for you. Although the information is from sources considered reliable, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. You should not rely upon it and should seek qualified advice before making any investment decision. Except where liability under any statute cannot be excluded, we do not accept any liability (whether under contract, tort or otherwise) for any resulting loss or damage of the reader or any other person. 
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.

Bonds are not usually the flashy upstarts of the investment world with their every move reported, like stocks.

But the Trump Administration’s extraordinary refashioning of world trade, with on-again off-again tariffs of eye watering amounts, has put bond markets in a similar position to share markets – in turmoil.

So, with the bond markets attracting more attention than usual, we take a closer look at the asset class.

What is a bond?

A bond is a bit like an interest-only loan and there are many different types of bonds available. A government (government bond), or sometimes a large company (corporate bond), issues bonds to investors to raise funds for infrastructure or, in the case of a company, for expansion.

Large institutional investors tend to favour some of the more complex types. Retail investors are more often interested in fixed-rate bonds, known as a fixed-income investment because of the regular payments made to the investor (or the coupon interest rate). The principal (called the face value) is repaid at an agreed date when the bond matures.

These bonds can also be traded on a secondary market by those who’ve chosen to sell their bonds before maturity. In this case, depending on the state of the markets and the economy, the amount they’re worth, or their capital value, may be higher or lower than the face value, which is fixed.

The most common fixed-rate bonds, issued by governments, are generally considered more stable. Nonetheless, all bonds are assigned a credit rating by independent rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s or Moody’s.

Australia’s Commonwealth bonds, issued by the federal government, are AAA-rated reflecting strong fiscal management, economic stability and low default risk.ⁱ

State governments and quasi-government organisations such as the World Bank also issue bonds. The risk level for this category of bonds can vary.

Large companies, looking to expand or start new projects, often use bonds as a way to raise funds. Corporate bonds generally pay higher interest but are considered slightly more risky.

How to buy bonds

Investing in bonds can help to diversify a portfolio and provide a steady stream of income but for those with no knowledge or experience of the market, it is important to get quality professional advice and speak to us.

For example, if you had been relying on the conventional wisdom that bond markets are often up when share markets are down, recent share market activity would have delivered a shock. The usual flight to safety from share price volatility to bonds did not happen in the United States where, for a time, both markets were falling.

While it is possible to buy bonds directly when there is a public offer, it can be difficult for smaller individual investors to participate because of the large minimum transactions required.

Instead, most retail investors look to bond funds, bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) or managed funds for exposure to the bond market. The variety of funds on offer can help to diversify a portfolio by giving access to a range of different markets.

What affects bond rates?

Interest rate movements directly affect bond prices on the secondary market.

When interest rates rise, bond prices fall because newly issued bonds will be at the higher rate making older bonds less attractive and reducing demand.

Conversely, bond prices rise when interest rates fall because new bonds will offer the lower rates meaning there will be higher demand for older bonds, driving their prices up.

Bond prices are also influenced by economic conditions and investor sentiment.

Rising inflation can cause bond prices to rise while strong economic growth may decrease bond prices because investors often prefer to buy shares. Bonds with a lower credit risk, such as AAA-rated government bonds, tend to attract higher prices.

Be alert for scams

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) is warning investors about scammers using bond investments as a lure.ⁱⁱ

In one report earlier this year, scammers claimed to be offering sustainability investment bonds in Bunnings Warehouse.

The scam offered higher than market returns and claimed that investments are protected by the government. It included links to Bunnings genuine website although the company does not offer bonds or any investment products.

ASIC’s MoneySmart website warns that scammers often impersonate real companies. They may use the name of a real person working at the bank or company they say they represent.ⁱⁱⁱ

“Be wary of surprise contact and independently verify who you are dealing with,” says ASIC. For detailed steps, see check before you invest.

If you would like to learn more about your options for investing in bonds, please give us a call. 

How do bond yields change?

When bond prices fall, yields rise because the fixed coupon rate represents a higher percentage of the lower price. Similarly, when bond prices rise, yields fall because the fixed coupon rate is then a smaller percentage of the higher price.

For example, suppose interest rates fall. New bonds that are issued will now offer lower interest payments.

This makes existing bonds that were issued before the fall in interest rates more valuable to investors, because they offer higher interest payments compared to new bonds. As a result, the price of existing bonds will increase. However, if a bond’s price increases it is now more expensive for a potential new investor to buy. The bond’s yield will then fall because the return an investor expects from purchasing this bond is now lower.^iv

i Fitch Affirms Australia at ‘AAA’; Outlook Stable

ii Scam alert: ASIC warns consumers about investment bond scam impersonating Bunnings | ASIC

iii Imposter bond investment scams – Moneysmart.gov.au

iv Bonds and the Yield Curve | Explainer | Education | RBA

Australian share prices have seen record highs in 2024 after a sluggish couple of years.

The S&P ASX200 index added just under 7 per cent in the 10 months to October 31 closing at 8160.ⁱ It reached its previous all-time high of 8355 just two weeks before.

So, if you were invested in an index fund or a basket of shares mirroring the ASX200 for the entire period, it’s likely you would have added some value to your portfolio.

Over the course of the year, the index has ebbed and flowed, recording several all-time highs.

But, while 2024 has so far been a boon for some investors, there have been some jarring notes.

For example, there was the devastating drop in the first week of August when the index lost $100 million in the biggest fall since the COVID lockdown over concerns about falls in the United States and Asian markets.ⁱⁱ

Geopolitical tensions have also played a part in market skittishness as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine continue and economists argue about the future impact on Australia of a Trump presidency.

US share prices surged the day after Donald Trump’s election in what many saw as a positive reaction to the returning President’s policies. Since then, prices have declined in a not-unexpected correction. Various analysts are predicting future volatility as markets respond to the proposed policies including tariffs and mass deportations promised by the President-elect.

These ups and downs in prices can have investors scurrying to hit the ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ buttons. They may be desperate to save further losses when share prices are falling rapidly or wanting to cash in on a rising market. Meanwhile, those with lump sums to invest may delay, trying to pick the time when prices are lowest.

Timing the market

It’s a strategy – known as timing the market – that may work for some, particularly if you need access to your investment in the short term. But, for mid- to long-term investors, it’s generally accepted to be problematic.

To begin with, predicting the next market movement is extremely difficult – even for experienced investors – because of the endless factors that can influence the markets.

Emotion or sentiment plays a big part too, both in the way the markets react to events and in the times that individual investors choose to buy or sell.

Reacting to major market movements by selling or keeping a lump sum in cash until ‘the time is right’ means you run the risk of missing the market’s best days and reducing your overall return.

Countless studies show that better long-term results are achieved by consistent investing over time.

In the US, for example, US$10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over the 20 years to December 2022 would have achieved a 9.8 per cent annual return.ⁱⁱⁱ But, missing the 10 best days over those two decades would have seen the return almost halved to 5.6 per cent. If an investor had missed 60 best days over the 20 years, they would have been left with just $4205 of their $10,000, a fall of 4.2 per cent.

Defying conventional wisdom, seven of the 10 best days took place during bear markets and, in 2020, the second-best day happened immediately after the second worst day.

In Australia, $10,000 invested in the ASX/S&P 200 during the 20 years to October 2024 would have increased to $60,777.^iv But, if you had missed the 10 best days during that time, your total investment would be just $36,014.

How values grow over time

Here is how $10,000, invested in 1994, grew over 30 years.

Source: Vanguard Australia

Dollar cost averaging

One way of taking the emotion and guesswork out of investing is to consider investing fixed amounts of money at regular intervals over time, ignoring any market signals.

It is a strategy known as ‘dollar cost averaging’, which works best if you are investing over the medium to long term because it helps to smooth out the price peaks and troughs.

In fact, the compulsory superannuation paid by employers is a form of dollar cost averaging. Smaller, regular amounts are invested automatically, regardless of market movements and, over time, the investment grows. Alternatively, regular amounts from after-tax salary can be invested in a similar way.

However, the jury is out on whether dollar cost averaging is a useful strategy when you have a lump sum in cash to invest. Some advocates of the strategy argue that the principles of dollar cost averaging mean a better return by not timing the markets. In particular, you reduce the risk of making a large investment just before markets plunge.

Those opposed to the strategy for lump sum investing say that, with a lump sum sitting in a bank account as you chip away at regular stock purchases, there is a risk that you will miss the best of the market. It is also a form of market timing. The argument is that, by investing your lump sum all at once, you’re putting your cash to work immediately. In any case, stockmarket returns over the long term outperform cash investments.

A 2023 study found that investing a lump sum in the markets at once over the long term delivers a better return than a dollar cost averaging strategy.^v

So, avoid the risks of timing the market and consider whether dollar cost averaging might be an appropriate strategy for you.

We’d be happy to discuss how best to ensure your regular investing strategy or investment of a lump sum, takes account of future market movements and volatility.

i Australia Stock Market Index | Trading Economics

ii Australian stockmarket sheds more than $100 billion in biggest fall since the lockdown era. Here’s why | ABC News

iii Timing the Market: Why It’s So Hard, in One Chart | Visual Capitalist

iv Timing the market | Fidelity Australia

v Lump-sum investing versus cost averaging: Which is better? | Vanguard

There is no debate that Australians love investing in property. The value of Australian residential real estate at the end of August 2024 was an estimated $10.95 trillion.ⁱ

Some love it so much that they believe property is a better option for providing a retirement income. They see a bricks and mortar investment as a more tangible and solid approach than say, superannuation, preferring to take their super as a lump sum on retirement to buy property. They may also choose to invest a windfall, such as an inheritance, or the proceeds from downsizing the family home, in property instead of their super.  

So, given that a retired couple above age 65 needs an estimated yearly income $73,337 to lead a comfortable lifestyle, could a property investment do the job?ⁱⁱ

While it’s true that a sizeable property portfolio could deliver rental income to equal a super pension, it might mean missing out on some useful benefits.

After all, super is a retirement savings structure with significant tax advantages. It also has the flexibility to provide investments in a range of different asset classes, including property.

Meanwhile, super fund performance has, generally speaking, outstripped house price movements over the past decade. Super funds (invested in an all-growth category) returned an annual average of 9.1 per cent during that time while average house prices in Australian capital cities grew 6.5 per cent per year over the same period.^{iii, iv}

The performance of superannuation and property

Superannuation: Diversified Fund Performance

Fund category	Growth Assets (%)	1 Yr (%)	3 Yrs (% pa)	5 Yrs (% pa)	10 Yrs (% pa)
All Growth	96 – 100	12.7	6.1	8.3	9.1
High Growth	81 – 95	10.8	5.7	7.7	8.4
Growth	61 – 80	9.	4.9	6.3	7.2
Balanced	41 – 60	7.4	3.9	4.8	5.8
Conservative	21 – 40	5.5	2.6	3.3	4.3

Note: Results to 30 June 2024. Performance is shown net of investment fees and tax. It is before administration fees and adviser commissions.

Source: Chant West

Property: Capital city average prices

Source: SQM Research

Not that past performance can give you any guarantees about what will happen in the future. Indeed, the average numbers smooth out the years of high returns and the years of negative returns. More important considerations in making an informed decision are your financial goals, your investment timeframe and how much risk you’re comfortable with.

Liquidity

One of the most significant differences between super and property investments is liquidity, or how quickly you can convert your investment to cash.

With super, assuming you’re eligible, funds can be accessed relatively easily and quickly. On the other hand, if your wealth is tied up in property it may take some time to sell or it may sell at a lower price.

Nonetheless, market cycles affect both property and super investments. They can be affected by volatile conditions and deliver negative returns just at the time you need access to a lump sum.

Long-term investing

Superannuation is designed for long-term growth, often spanning decades as you accumulate wealth over your working life. The magic of compounding interest can lead to substantial growth over time, depending on your investment options and the state of the market.

Property investments, on the other hand, can be invested for short, medium, and long-term growth depending on the suburb, the street, and the type of house you invest in. Of course, there are additional costs in buying a property (such as stamp duty) plus costs in selling (including capital gains tax). If there’s a mortgage over the property, you’ll need to factor in the additional costs of repayments and interest (bearing in mind that interest on investment properties is tax deductible).

Risk appetite

Investors’ attitudes towards risk also play a role in choosing between super and property.

Superannuation funds can be diversified across various asset classes, which helps to reduce risk. But property investments expose investors to a single market meaning that while there might be a big benefit from an upswing, any downturn may be a blow to a portfolio.

Making an informed choice

Ultimately, any decision between superannuation and property should align with individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment strategies. And, of course, it doesn’t need to be one or the other – many choose to rely on their super while also holding investment property so it’s best to understand how super and property can complement each other in a well-rounded retirement plan.

We’d be happy to help you analyse your retirement income strategy to develop a plan that works for you.

i Monthly Housing Chart Pack – September 2024 | CoreLogic Australia

ii ASFA Retirement Standard – June quarter 2024 | The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia Limited (ASFA)

iii Super funds deliver strong result in FY24 | Chant West

iv SQM Research Weekly Asking Property Prices , 1 October 2024 | SQM Research

As we move into April, and hot on the heels of the recent Federal Budget, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a national election for May 3 – kicking off an April campaign centred on tax cuts and cost-of-living relief. 

Meanwhile fears of inflation in the United States and alarm about unpredictable and escalating tariffs saw sharp falls on Wall Street during March, particularly in the final week.

In Australia, the events in the US, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the start of the federal election campaign have all made their mark. The S&P/ASX 200 reacted with an almost 5% drop during March.

The Australian dollar, in the doldrums all year, improved slightly during the month before ending lower at around 63US cents.

Economic growth was up 0.6% in the December quarter and 1.3% for the year and household wealth climbed 0.9% in the same period. Inflation rose 2.4% in the 12 months to February, a slight softening from the previous month’s increase of 2.5%.

Consumer sentiment recorded a 4% rise in March, according to the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Sentiment index. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates in February and a further easing in cost-of-living pressures have provided a clear lift.  

Digital and skills tax incentives return

The Government has opened submissions for a 120 percent deduction for tech and training investment, bringing previous Federal Budget announcements one step closer to becoming reality.

Business leaders have applauded the move to legislate two measures that will allow organisations with turnover under $50 million to claim spending on digital solutions and training backdated to March.

The measures, dubbed the Small Business Technology Investment Boost and the Small Business Skills and Training Boost were announced as initiatives by the previous Government in its March Federal Budget and have now been released as draft legislation for introduction into Parliament later this year.

In a joint announcement by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Small Business Minister Julie Collins and Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones, the tax incentives were described as a way to ease the burden of upskilling for small businesses.

“The Government recognises that training employees is expensive and takes time, both of which are at a premium when employers are trying to run a small business,” the ministers said.

“These measures will make it easier for small businesses and help them recoup some of the costs of the investments they make in their employees and digital operations.”

The Small Business Technology Investment Boost

Under the proposed legislation, the boost offers a bonus 20 percent deduction on business expenditure relating to support digital operations.

What can a small business deduct?

At this stage the scope for claiming the digital boost is broad, covering anything that supports the digitisation of operations as well as ongoing investments of a digital nature, such as software licenses, subscriptions and related hardware.

However, the digital tax boost only applies on expenditure up to $100,000 in total, making the maximum deduction available to small businesses $20,000.

When does it apply?

Currently, the digital boost applies to expenses incurred from 7.30pm on 29 March 2022 through to 30 June 2023.

What isn’t included?

Several types of expenditure aren’t covered by the boost, such as:

• Salary and wages
• Capital works that can be deducted under Division 43 of ITAA 1997
• Financing
• Training and education (however, these may be covered by the skills and training boost)
• Spending associated with the trading of stock

For further information, you can find the draft legislation and explanatory materials for the Technology Investment Boost on the Treasury website.

The Small Business Skills Investment Boost

Similar to the tech boost, the Skills Investment Boost enables an additional 20 percent deduction on small business spending on external training and education of staff.

What can a small business deduct?

According to the draft legislation, the incentive applies to any training for employees conducted in Australia or online, however the expenditure must be charged by a Registered Training Organisation.

The training must also be already deductible under tax law and can’t be offered by the business (or an associate of the business) that is claiming the deduction.

When does it apply?

The skills boost will also be backdated to March, applying from 7.30pm 29 March 2022 and is set to continue to 30 June 2024.

For more details on the Skills Investment Boost, you can find the draft legislation as well as explanatory materials on the Treasury website.

Budgetary win for business

With the new Government set to hand down a second Federal Budget in October, the announcement of these initiatives is being seen as a positive move by business leaders around the country.

And, with MYOB modelling suggesting that nearly half a million Australian small businesses have little to no engagement with digital tools, both initiatives are likely to have a big impact.

“Businesses with meaningful engagement with digital are 50 percent more likely to grow revenue,” said MYOB CEO Greg Ellis.

“They’re eight times more likely to create jobs. They are 14 times more likely to come up with new products or services.

“Productivity is what Australia needs; making sure every business is a digital business needs to be one of our top priorities,” he said.

The sentiment was echoed in a statement from Council of Small Business Organisations Australia CEO Alexi Boyd.

“It is essential to incentivise digitisation to make our small businesses stronger, more productive, and more resilient to future economic shocks.”

Meanwhile, Australian Small Business and Family Enterprise Ombudsman Bruce Billson pointed to more specific benefits.

“The digital tax break will allow [businesses] to invest in items such as cyber security systems, cloud-based services, accounting or eInvoicing software, hardware such as laptops and portable payment devices.

“For a small business, the cost of training staff can be quite significant, and this deduction will support owners to make an investment in upskilling staff to drive productivity and competitiveness.”

The draft legislation for both initiatives is open for consultation until 19 September.

Source: MYOB August 2022

Reproduced with the permission of MYOB. This article by Campbell Phillips was originally published at https://www.myob.com/au/blog/digital-and-training-tax-incentives-return/

Important:
This provides general information and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important to consider your particular circumstances before deciding what’s right for you. Although the information is from sources considered reliable, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. You should not rely upon it and should seek qualified advice before making any investment decision. Except where liability under any statute cannot be excluded, we do not accept any liability (whether under contract, tort or otherwise) for any resulting loss or damage of the reader or any other person.

Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.

How political events affect the markets

From the economy bending policies of Trump 2.0 to the growing strength of the far right in Europe, the new alliance between Russia and the United States, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the US President’s vow to upturn world trade rules, the markets are certainly navigating tricky times.

In recent months we’ve seen volatility in some areas but cautious optimism in others in a reflection of the hand-in-glove relationship between politics and markets.

Of course, economic policies, laws and regulations– think tax increases or decreases, new business regulations or even referendums – have a big effect on how investors allocate their portfolios and that impacts market performance.

In 2016, when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, the UK pound plunged and more than US$2 trillion was wiped off global equity markets.ⁱ

In the following four years until Brexit was finally achieved in 2020, the FTSE 100 performed poorly compared to other markets as domestic and international investors looked elsewhere to avoid risk. While it has risen since a massive drop during the coronavirus pandemic, the exodus of companies from the London Stock Exchange continues with almost 90 departures in 2024.ⁱⁱ

Interest rate movements and any hint of political instability can also bring about a sell off or a rally in prices, with companies holding off on capital investment and causing economic growth to slow.ⁱⁱⁱ

Global oil prices rose 30 per cent in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine causing European stock markets to plunge 4 per cent in a single day.^iv Since then, oil prices have fluctuated and are now back to pre-war levels and gold has reached new heights as investors globally look for a safe haven from high geopolitical risks.

Do elections have an effect?

Elections, which almost always cause market disruptions during the uncertainty of the campaign period and shortly after the vote is known, have featured strongly in the past six months or so.

A review of 75 years of US market data has found that, while there may be outbursts of volatility in the lead up to the vote, there’s minimal impact on financial market performance in the medium to long term. The data shows that market returns are typically more dependent on economic and inflation trends rather than election results.^v

Nonetheless, the noisy 2024 US Presidential campaign saw some ups and downs in markets during the Democrats’ upheaval and the switch to Kamala Harris as candidate. Donald Trump’s various policy announcements on taxes, immigration, government cost cutting and tariffs both buoyed and dismayed investors.

Analysis by Macquarie University researchers of the three days before and after election day found significant abnormal returns in US equities immediately after the vote.^vi

But the surge was short-lived as investor sentiment fluctuated. Small cap equities with more domestic exposure experienced the highest returns while the energy sector also saw substantial gains, in anticipation of regulatory changes.

While currently the S&P500 and the Nasdaq have both gained overall since the election, there’s been extreme share price volatility.

How Australia has fared

Meanwhile, any impact on markets ahead of Australia’s upcoming federal election  has so far been muted thanks to the volume of world events.

The on-again off-again US tariffs are causing more concern here for both policymakers and investors. Tariffs on our exports could mean higher prices and a drop in demand for our goods and services, leading to economic uncertainty.

In early February, the Australian share market took a dive immediately after President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, wiping off around $50 billion from the ASX 200. They recovered slightly only to fall again later as the Reserve Bank cut interest rates. In the US, some tech companies delayed or cancelled their listing plans because of the volatility and uncertainty caused by the announcements.^vii

Amid a turbulent start to 2025, most economists agree the markets are unlikely to hit last year’s 7.49 per cent achieved by the S&P ASX 200.

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock is similarly downbeat on the prospects for the year, saying uncertainty about the global outlook remains “significant”.^viii

Please get in touch if you’re watching world events and wondering about the impact on your portfolio.

i Post-Brexit global equity loss of over $2 trillion worst ever -S&P

ii London Stock Exchange suffers biggest exodus since financial crisis

iii Policy Instability and the Risk-Return Trade-Off | St. Louis Fed

iv Why Financial Markets Are Sensitive to Political Uncertainty

v How Presidential Elections Affect the Stock Market | U.S. Bank

vi 2024 presidential election: U.S. equities surged, then retreated, after Trump’s victory

vii They’ve Been Waiting Years to Go Public. They’re Still Waiting. – The New York Times

viii Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA

Sowing the seeds of succession

Succession planning can be difficult at the best of times without dealing with the added pressures farmers need to face including droughts, fires and floods.

And that’s why it is even more important to plan early and get it right when you are on the land. You are not just dealing with a business, but invariably also with a home.

Some 99 per cent of the 135,000 farms in Australia are family owned with the average age of farmers being 52.ⁱ It is believed that farmers are five times more likely than other Australians to be working beyond the age of 65. There are a variety of reasons for this, from a reluctance to relinquish control, to a lack of family willing to take over the reins and financial necessity.

Given the physicality of farming, it would seem to make a lot more sense to start thinking about succession planning well before that stage.

Often such planning is put into the too hard basket because there are so many variables to consider. But this will not solve the problem, so it’s better to get good advice and get it early.

Start talking

The first thing you need to do is open the doors of communication. Arrange a time to talk with your family to discuss:

• Who wants to inherit and work on the farm and who wants to leave the property
• Whether they agree each child should be treated equally or accept that the one inheriting the farm should receive preferential treatment
• How everybody feels about splitting the property between siblings, or
• The way forward if none of your children wants to stay on the land.

These are all considerations that need to be addressed and revisited over time to ensure they meet with everybody’s wishes.

If just one of the children wants to remain on the property, will they need to find the finance to pay out the other siblings? If so, then the next decision is how that finance will be found.

Perhaps the answer is to transfer the property before you die. If that is the case, then where will you live in retirement and what will be your source of income once you retire? Again, you need to examine the options. Perhaps you may receive an ongoing income from the property, or maybe find income from other investments. Importantly, you also need to revisit these options over time to ensure they still work for you.

One danger of not having a succession plan and working well beyond your best years, is that you can run the farm into the ground and make it a far less attractive property to sell.

Structure your plans

There are so many questions to ask and what is right for one family, may not be right for another.

But once you determine how you want to move forward, you then need to examine the best structures to put in place to make the process as efficient as possible. Some of the key advice you may need is on tax, trusts and land ownership and the intersection of all three.

Tax is particularly important as you want to avoid or at least minimise capital gains tax (CGT).

If you are 55 years of age or more and retiring and have owned your property for at least 15 years, then you may qualify for the small business 15-year CGT exemption on your entire capital gains. Other concessions may apply if you don’t qualify the 15-year exemption.

For couples where the family farm is held in their own name, perhaps you might want to consider a joint tenancy agreement as it leads to automatic transfer of ownership if one dies.

Or you might consider putting the farm into a family trust or perhaps holding it as an asset in your self-managed super fund. There are so many what-ifs to consider when it comes to rural properties. If you want to discuss how to move forward on your estate and succession planning and what will work best for you, then give us a call.

i https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/succession-family-farm.html

Navigating turbulent times in the share market

As investors grapple with uncertainty, keeping a cool head has never been more important.

“Time in the market, not timing the market” is a popular investment philosophy that emphasises the importance of staying invested over the long term rather than trying to predict short-term market movements. While markets can be volatile in the short term, historically, they tend to grow over time.

It’s a strategy that helps you avoid getting caught up in short-term market fluctuations or trying to predict where the market is heading.

With the recent market turbulence, from the global effects of US President Donald Trump’s administration to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, savvy investors look beyond the immediate chaos to focus on strategies that encourage stability and growth over the long-term.

It’s a hallmark of the approach by the world’s most high-profile investor, Warren Buffet, who argues that short-term volatility is just background noise.

“I know what markets are going to do over a long period of time, they’re going to go up,” says Buffet.ⁱ

“But in terms of what’s going to happen in a day or a week or a month, or even a year …I’ve never felt it was important,” he says.

Buffet first invested in the sharemarket when he was 11 years old. It was April 1942, just four months after the devastating and deadly attack on Pearl Harbour that caused panic on Wall Street. But he wasn’t fazed by the uncertain times.

Today Buffet is worth an estimated US$147 billion.ⁱⁱ

Long-term growth in Australia

While growth has been higher in the US, investors in Australian shares over the long-term have also fared well. For example, $10,000 invested 30 years ago in a basket of shares that mirrored the All Ordinaries Index would be worth more than $135,000 today (assuming any dividends were reinvested).ⁱⁱⁱ

And it’s not just the All Ords. If that $10,000 investment was instead made in Australian listed property, it would be worth almost $95,000 today or in bonds, it would be worth almost $52,000.

In real estate, the average house price in Australia 30 years ago was under $200,000. Today it is just over $1 milllion.^iv

Meanwhile, cash may well be a safe haven and handy for quick access but it is not going to significantly boost wealth. For example, $10,000 invested in cash 30 years ago would be worth just $34,000 today.^v

Diversify to manage risk

Diversifying your investment portfolio helps to manage the risks of market fluctuations. When one investment sector or group of sectors is in the doldrums, other markets might be firing therefore reducing the chance that a downturn in one area will wipe out your entire portfolio.

For example, the Australian listed property sector was the best performer in 2024, adding 24.6 per cent for the year. But just two years earlier, it was the worst performer, losing 12.3 per cent.^vi

Short-term investments – including government bonds, high interest savings accounts and term deposits – can play an important role in diversifying the risks and gains in an investment portfolio and are great for adding stability and liquidity to a portfolio.

Ongoing investment strategies

Taking a long-term view to accumulating wealth is far from a set-and-forget approach and by staying invested, you give your investments the best chance to grow, avoiding the risks of missing out on key growth periods by trying to time your buy and sell decisions perfectly.

Reviewing your investments regularly helps to keep on top of any emerging economic and political trends that may affect your portfolio. While it’s important to stay informed about market trends, it is equally important not to overreact when there is volatility in the share market.

Emotional investing can lead to poor decisions, so remember the goal is not to avoid market declines but to remain focussed on your overall long-term investment strategy.

Please get in touch with us if you’d like to discuss your investment

i Warren Buffett: The Truth About Stock Investing

ii Bloomberg Billionaires Index – Warren Buffett

iii, v, vi Vanguard Index Chart | Vanguard Australia Personal Investor

iv The Latest Median Property Prices in Australian Cities

What are tariffs?

Thanks to the decisive victory of US President-elect Donald Trump, we’re now set to hear a whole lot more of his favourite word.

It’s something of a love affair. On the campaign trail in October, he said:

To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff.

Previously, he’s matched such rhetoric with real policies. When he was last in office, Trump imposed a range of tariffs.

Now set to return to the White House, he wants tariffs of 10-20% on all imports to the US, and tariffs of 60% or more on those from China.

Most of us understand tariffs are some kind of barrier to trade between countries. But how exactly do they work? Who pays them – and what effects can they have on an economy?

What are tariffs?

An import tariff – sometimes called an import duty – is simply a tax on a good or service that is imported into a country. It’s collected by the government of the country importing the product.

How exactly does that work in practice?

Imagine Australia decided to impose a 10% tariff on all imported washing machines from South Korea.

If an Australian consumer or a business wanted to import a $1,200 washing machine from South Korea, they would have to pay the Australian government $120 when it entered the country.

So, everything else being equal, the final price an Australian consumer would end up paying for this washing machine is $1,320.

If a local industry or another country without the tariff could produce a competing good at a similar price, it would have a cost advantage.

Other trade barriers

Because tariffs make imports more expensive, economists refer to them as a trade barrier. They aren’t the only kind.

One other common non-tariff trade barrier is an import quota – a limit on how much of a particular good can be imported into a country.

Governments can also create other non-tariff barriers to trade.

These include administrative or regulatory requirements, such as customs forms, labelling requirements or safety standards that differ across countries.

What are the effects?

Tariffs can have two main effects.

First, they generate tax revenue for the government. This is a major reason why many countries have historically had tariff systems in place.

Borders and ports are natural places to record and regulate what flows into and out of a country. That makes them easy places to impose and enforce taxes.

Second, tariffs raise the cost of buying things produced in other countries. As such, they discourage this action and encourage alternatives, such as buying from domestic producers.

Protecting domestic workers and industries from foreign competition underlies the economic concept of “protectionism”.

The argument is that by making imports more expensive, tariffs will increase spending on domestically produced goods and services, leading to greater demand for domestic workers, and helping a country’s local industries grow.

Swapping producers isn’t always easy

Tariffs may increase the employment and wages of workers in import-competing industries. However, they can also impose costs, and create higher prices for consumers.

True, foreign producers trying to sell goods under a tariff may reduce their prices to remain competitive as exporters, but this only goes so far. At least some of the cost of any tariff imposed by a country will likely be passed on to consumers.

Simply switching to domestic manufacturers likely means paying more. After all, without tariffs, buyers were choosing foreign producers for a reason.

Because they make selling their products in the country less profitable, tariffs also cause some foreign producers to exit the market altogether, which reduces the variety of products available to consumers. Less foreign competition can also give domestic businesses the ability to charge even higher prices.

Lower productivity and risk of retaliation

At an economy-wide level, trade barriers such as tariffs can reduce overall productivity.

That’s because they encourage industries to shift away from producing things for which a country has a comparative advantage into areas where it is relatively inefficient.

They can also artificially keep smaller, less productive producers afloat, while shrinking the size of larger, more productive producers.

Foreign countries may also respond to the tariffs by retaliating and imposing tariffs of their own.

We saw this under Trump’s previous administration, which increased tariffs on about US$350 billion worth of Chinese products between 2018 and 2019.

Several analyses have examined the effects and found it was not foreign producers but domestic consumers – and especially businesses relying on imported goods – that paid the full price of the tariffs.

In addition, the tariffs introduced in 2018 and 2019 failed to increase US employment in the sectors they targeted, while the retaliatory tariffs they attracted reduced employment, mainly in agriculture.

Economists’ verdict

Tariffs can generate tax revenue and may increase employment and wages in some import-competing sectors. But they can also raise prices and may reduce employment and wages in exporting sectors.

Do the benefits outweigh the costs? Economists are nearly unanimous – and have been for centuries – that trade barriers have an overall negative effect on an economy.

But free trade does not benefit everyone, and tariffs are clearly enjoying a moment of political popularity. There are interesting times ahead.

Source: https://theconversation.com/what-are-tariffs-243356

The challenges of market timing

When markets fall, it’s natural to want to take action to prevent further losses. Doing so however can do more harm than good. Here’s why timing the market to buy low and sell high is not as easy as it sounds.

If you’re invested in the financial markets and also keeping up with the news, you’re probably wondering if you should do anything to insulate your portfolio from incurring further losses alongside rising interest rates and inflation.

In times like these, reminding investors to “maintain discipline” and “stay the course” – in other words, stay invested and here’s why:

Reacting to the here and now

Most market commentary are about the events of the day, with a focus on the here and now. However, the ‘today’ is not as significant to financial markets as they’re generally forward looking and more concerned about what will happen in the future. Thus, using daily developments to make constant adjustments to your portfolio is unlikely to help you accumulate wealth over the long term as the market will have already priced it in.

Additionally, to successfully time the market, investors need to get all five of these investment factors right including precisely timing exit and re-entry – a near impossible feat for even the most experienced of investors.

Locking in your losses

When markets fall, it’s natural to want to sell riskier assets (i.e. equities) and move to cash or safer assets like government securities. But exiting the share market now means locking in your losses permanently and not giving your portfolio the opportunity to benefit when markets recover. Research found that 80 per cent of investors who panicked and moved to cash during the 2020 sell off would have been better off if they had stayed invested¹.

Investing at the peak

While we all want to “buy low and sell high” so our portfolios can outperform the market average, in reality, it is extremely hard to execute perfectly every single time. Analysis of the last 5 decades reveals that even in the worst-case scenarios – where investors bought into the market at its peak, just before a dip – as long as investors stayed invested instead of moving to cash, they still benefited from positive annual returns of almost 11%.

If the recent market volatility is keeping you up at night, take a moment to reflect on whether your emotions are short-term reactions to the current conditions, or something you really need to act on. If you feel like you cannot stomach temporary losses, consider if your asset allocation is right for your overall investment goals and risk appetite.

A well-diversified core portfolio, aligned to your risk appetite will help spread your risk and afford you a margin of safety over the long term. Get this right and you will probably sleep better at night.

Contact us if you would like to discuss this further.

Source: Vanguard

1 https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/Cash-panickers-Coronavirus-market-volatility-US-CVMV_072020_online.pdf

Reproduced with permission of Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd

Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd (ABN 72 072 881 086 / AFS Licence 227263) is the product issuer. We have not taken yours and your clients’ circumstances into account when preparing this material so it may not be applicable to the particular situation you are considering. You should consider your circumstances and our Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Prospectus before making any investment decision. You can access our PDS or Prospectus online or by calling us. This material was prepared in good faith and we accept no liability for any errors or omissions. Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

© 2022 Vanguard Investments Australia Ltd. All rights reserved.

Important:
Any information provided by the author detailed above is separate and external to our business and our Licensee. Neither our business nor our Licensee takes any responsibility for any action or any service provided by the author. Any links have been provided with permission for information purposes only and will take you to external websites, which are not connected to our company in any way. Note: Our company does not endorse and is not responsible for the accuracy of the contents/information contained within the linked site(s) accessible from this page.

Turbocharge your super before 30 June

More than half of us set a new financial goal at the beginning of 2025, according to ASIC’s Moneysmart website. While most financial goals include saving money and paying down debts, the months leading up to 30 June provide an opportunity to review your super balance to look at ways to boost your retirement savings.

What you need to consider first

If you have more than one super account, consolidating them to one account may be an option for you. Consolidating your super could save you from paying multiple fees, however, if you have insurance inside your super, you may be at risk of losing it, so contact us before making any changes.ⁱ

How to boost your retirement savings

Making additional contributions on top of the super guarantee paid by your employer could make a big difference to your retirement balance thanks to the magic of compounding interest.

There are a few ways to boost your super before 30 June:

Concessional contributions (before tax)

These contributions can be made from either your pre-tax salary via a salary-sacrifice arrangement through your employer or using after-tax money and depositing funds directly into your super account.

Apart from the increase to your super balance, you may pay less tax (depending on your current marginal rate).ⁱⁱ

Check to see what your current year to date contributions are so any additional contributions you may make don’t exceed the concessional (before-tax) contributions cap, which is $30,000 from 1 July 2024.ⁱⁱⁱ

Non-concessional contributions (after tax)

This type of contribution is also known as a personal contribution. It is important not to exceed the cap on contributions, which is set at $120,000 from 1 July 2024.^iv

If you exceed the concessional contributions cap (before tax) of $30,000 per annum, any additional contributions made are taxed at your marginal tax rate less a 15 per cent tax offset to account for the contributions tax already paid by your super fund.

Exceeding the non-concessional contributions cap will see a tax of 47 per cent levied on the excess contributions.

Carry forward (catch-up) concessional contributions

If you’ve had a break from work or haven’t reached the maximum contributions cap for the past five years, this type of super contribution could help boost your balance – especially if you’ve received a lump sum of money like a work bonus.

These contributions are unused concessional contributions from the previous five financial years and only available to those whose super accounts are less than $500,000.

There are strict rules around this type of contribution, and they are complex so it’s important to get advice before making a catch-up contribution.

Downsizer contributions

If you are over 55 years, have owned your home for 10 years and are looking to sell, you may be able to make a non-concessional super contribution of as much as $300,000 per person – $600,000 if you are a couple. You must make the contribution to your super within 90 days of receiving the proceeds of the sale of your home.

Spouse contributions

There are two ways you can make spouse super contributions, you could:

• split contributions you have already made to your own super, by rolling them over to your spouse’s super – known as a contributions-splitting super benefit, or
• contribute directly to your spouse’s super, treated as their non-concessional contribution, which may entitle you to a tax offset of $540 per year if they earn less than $40,000 per annum

Again, there are a few restrictions and eligibility requirements for this type of contribution.

Get in touch for more information about your options and for help with a super strategy that could help you achieve a rewarding retirement.

i Transferring or consolidating your super | Australian Taxation Office

ii Salary sacrificing super | Australian Taxation Office

iii Concessional contributions cap | Australian Taxation Office

iv Non-concessional contributions cap | Australian Taxation Office

Treasurer aims to “rebuild living standards”

Much of the 2025 Federal Budget was already known, after a volley of pre-election spruiking for votes. But Treasurer Jim Chalmers had one surprise up his sleeve – $17 billion in tax cuts. The first round of cuts will kick in on 1 July 2026 and second round on 1 July 2027, saving the average earner $536 each year when fully implemented.

With the next Federal Election due to be called any day, the Treasurer named five priorities for his fourth budget: helping with the cost of living, strengthening Medicare, building more homes, investing in education, and making the economy stronger.

He called it a plan for “a new generation of prosperity in a new world of uncertainty” that would help “finish the fight against inflation”.

The big picture

The Budget deficit has made an unwelcome, but not surprising, return. The Albanese government has been clear that we were headed back into the red and Treasurer Chalmers says the $42.1 billion deficit is less than what was forecast at both the last election and at the mid-year update. Gross debt has been reduced by $177 billion down to $940 billion, saving around $60 billion in interest over the decade.

Nonetheless, Australia is navigating choppy international waters with a “volatile and unpredictable” global economy.

Australia will feel the shockwaves from escalating trade tensions, two major global conflicts – in Ukraine and the Middle East, and slowing growth in China. Treasury predicts the global economy will grow by 3.25 per cent in each of the next three years in the longest stretch of below-average growth since the early 1990s.

However, Australia is in a good position to deal with the difficult conditions, the Treasurer says.

The Australian economy has “turned a corner” and continues to outperform many advanced economies. Inflation has moderated “significantly”, and the labour market has outperformed expectations. Meanwhile growth is predicted to increase from 1.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent by 2026-27.

Addressing the cost of living

With the rising cost of living expected to be central to the upcoming election campaign, the Budget aims to deliver more support to those doing it tough with further tax cuts, changes to Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS), cuts to student debt and wage increases for aged care and childcare workers among a number of initiatives

Apart from the new tax cuts due in 2026 and 2027, the government will increase the Medicare levy low-income thresholds from 1 July 2024.

The energy bill relief is also being extended to the end of this year. At a cost of $1.8 billion, every household and around one million small businesses will each receive $150 off their electricity bills in two quarterly payments.

The government claims that energy bill relief has helped to drop electricity prices by 25.2 per cent across 2024.

Students aren’t forgotten in the Budget with a cut of $19 billion in student loan debt, with all outstanding student debts reduced by 20 per cent and a promised change to make the student loan repayment system fairer.

The government is tackling the cost of living where it’s often most obvious – at the cash register. It is providing support for fresh produce suppliers to enforce their rights and will make it easier to open new supermarkets. It’s also planning to focus on “unfair and excessive” card surcharges.

Looking for a clean bill of health

Almost $8 billion will be spent to expand bulk billing, the largest single investment in Medicare since its creation 40 years ago.

Treasurer Chalmers says nine-out-of-10 GP visits should be bulk billed by the end of the decade with an extra 4,800 bulk billing practices.

There’ll also be another 50 Urgent Care Clinics across the country, taking the total to 137, and public hospitals will get a boost of $1.8 billion to help cut waiting lists, reduce waiting times in emergency rooms and manage ambulance ramping.

Cheaper medicines

The cost of medicines is also in the government’s sights. The maximum cost of drugs on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) will be lowered for everyone with a Medicare Card and no concession card. From 1 January 2026, the maximum co-payment will be lowered from $31.60 to $25.00 per script and remain at $7.70 for pensioners and concession cardholders. Four out of five PBS medicines will become cheaper for general non‑Safety Net patients, with larger savings for medicines eligible for a 60‑day prescription.

An extra $1.8 billion is also being invested to list new medicines on the PBS.

Increasing the housing stock

The government’s previously announced target of 1.2 million new homes over five years has seen 45,000 homes completed in the first quarter.

The budget sees an extra $54 million to encourage modern construction methods and $120 million to help states and territories remove red tape.

With building set to increase, more apprentices are needed, and the government has announced financial incentives of up to $10,000 to encourage more people to take up apprenticeships in building trades. Some employers may also be eligible for $5,000 incentives for hiring apprentices.

The Help to Buy program that allows homebuyers to get into the market with lower deposits and small mortgages will be expanded with an extra $800 million to lift property price and income caps to make the scheme more accessible.

To help increase housing stock available, foreign buyers will be banned from purchasing existing dwellings for two years from 1 April 2025. Land banking by foreign owners will also be outlawed.

Recovering and rebuilding

The damage from ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred and subsequent rains in Queensland and northern New South Wales is so extensive that it is expected to wipe a quarter of a percentage point off quarterly growth.

Flooding has damaged infrastructure and disrupted supply chains, agricultural production, construction, retail, and tourism activity.

The government expects costs of at least $13.5 billion in disaster support. As a result, the Budget includes $1.2 billion to be placed in a contingency fund to better respond to future disasters.

Looking ahead

Despite concerning events on the world stage, Australia’s economy is emerging “in better shape than almost any other advanced economy”.

Inflation and unemployment are coming down and wage growth will be stronger. To help underpin continuing economic growth, the Budget adds $22.7 billion to the government’s Future Made in Australia agenda.

It includes extra investment in renewable energies and low emissions technologies and an expansion of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. The plan also includes more than $15 billion in support for private investment in hydrogen and critical minerals production, clean energy technology manufacturing, green metals, and low carbon liquid fuels.

And, as the trade war kicks off, the Budget allocates $20 million to a Buy Australian campaign.

“The plan at the core of this Budget is about more than putting the worst behind us. It’s about seizing what’s ahead of us,” the Treasurer says.

If you have any questions about the Budget measures announced, please don’t hesitate to contact us. 

Information in this article has been sourced from the Budget Speech 2025-26 and Federal Budget Support documents.  
It is important to note that the policies outlined in this article are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change.

More than half of us set a new financial goal at the beginning of 2025, according to ASIC’s Moneysmart website. While most financial goals include saving money and paying down debts, superannuation should also be factored in as part of your overall saving strategy.  

The months leading up to 30 June provide an opportunity to review your current super balance to look at ways you could help boost your retirement savings.

What you need to consider first

If you have more than one super account, consolidating them to one account may be an option for you. Consolidating your super could save you from paying multiple fees, however, if you have insurance insider super, you may be at risk of losing it, so contact us before you make any changes.

When transferring super into one account, do your homework and shop around, your current fund may not be your best option.ⁱ

Compare the fees and charges of other funds and if you have insurance within your super, find out whether your insurance is affected if you move.

If you need to consolidate or transfer super funds, you can do this through your myGov account. If you’re unsure which fund is best suited to you, it’s a good idea to seek advice to make sure your new fund is appropriate for you, so give us a call and we’d be happy to help with that.

How to boost your retirement savings

Making additional contributions on top of the super guarantee paid by your employer – whether big or small, could bring a host of benefits and make a big difference to your retirement balance thanks to the magic of compounding interest.

There are a few ways to boost your super before 30 June:

Concessional contributions (before tax) 

These contributions can be done from either your pre-tax salary via a salary-sacrifice arrangement through your employer or using after-tax money and depositing funds directly into your super account.

By arranging to have some of your pre-tax salary paid directly into your super, in addition to your super guarantee payment, you reduce your taxable income and therefore pay less tax. Your contributions are taxed in the super fund at 15 per cent, which may be less than your marginal rate.ⁱⁱ

Check to see what your current year to date contributions are so any additional contributions you may make don’t exceed the concessional (before-tax) contributions cap, which is $30,000 from 1 July 2024.ⁱⁱⁱ

Non-concessional contributions (after tax)

This type of contribution is also known as a personal contribution. It is important not to exceed the cap on contributions, which is set at $120,000 from 1 July 2024.^iv

If you exceed the concessional contributions cap (before tax) of $30,000 per annum, any additional contributions made are taxed at your marginal tax rate less a 15 per cent tax offset to account for the contributions tax already paid by your super fund.

Exceeding the non-concessional contributions cap will see a tax of 47 per cent levied on the excess contributions.

Carry forward (catch-up) concessional contributions

If you’ve had a break from work or haven’t reached the maximum contributions cap for the past five years, this type of super contribution could help boost your balance – especially if you’ve received a lump sum of money like a work bonus.

These contributions are unused concessional contributions from the previous five financial years and only available to those whose super accounts are less than $500,000.

There are strict rules around this type of contribution, and they are complex so it’s important to get advice before making a catch-up contribution. To be eligible you:

• need to be under the age of 75 – your contribution must be received by your super fund on or before 28 days following the end of the month you turn 75
• can only carry forward unused concessional contributions from 1 July 2019
• must have a super balance less than $500,000 on 30 June of the previous financial year (eg 30 June 2024 for the 2024/25 financial year)

Downsizer contributions

If you are over 55 years, have owned your home for 10 years and are looking to sell to downsize, you may be able to make a non-concessional super contribution of as much as $300,000 per person – $600,000 if you are a couple. While this strategy isn’t reliant on the 30 June deadline, you must make the contribution to your super within 90 days of receiving the proceeds of the sale of your home.

Spouse contributions

There are two ways you can make spouse super contributions, you could:

• split contributions you have already made to your own super, by rolling them over to your spouse’s super – known as a contributions-splitting super benefit, or
• contribute directly to your spouse’s super, treated as their non-concessional contribution, which may entitle you to a tax offset of $540 per year if they earn less than $40,000 per annum

Again, there are a few restrictions and eligibility requirements for this type of contribution. So, seize the moment and avoid the set-and-forget approach to super. Taking action today could make a big difference to your retirement.

Get in touch for more information about your options and for help with a super strategy that could help you achieve a rewarding retirement.

How long-term performance affects your savings

Reviewing your superannuation fund’s performance regularly can pay off in the long term to ensure your investment suits your needs.

It doesn’t mean that you should constantly change your fund to chase better returns but rather check to see that your fund is performing well in comparison to other funds.

i Transferring or consolidating your super | Australian Taxation Office

ii Salary sacrificing super | Australian Taxation Office

iii Concessional contributions cap | Australian Taxation Office

iv Non-concessional contributions cap | Australian Taxation Office

As we say goodbye to the heat of summer, we can look forward to enjoying the cooler days ahead. Along with the drop in temperature, the RBA brought much relief to mortgage holders and dropped the cash rate by 25 basis points in February. The cash rate is now sitting at 4.10 per cent following the first rate-reduction since November 2020.

Inflation remained steady in February, at 2.5 per cent and core inflation at 2.8 per cent; however, the RBA remains cautious and has not guaranteed further cash rate cuts in 2025. Some economists are predicting further cuts in 2025, but time will tell.

While there is ongoing tension between Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and a looming trade war due to Trump’s proposed tariffs, the global economic outlook continues to remain unpredictable.

US markets reacted to the lower-than-expected consumer spending and continued geopolitical issues, with another month of volatility.

It’s also been volatile on the Aussie share market, with the ASX 200 losing ground earlier in the month, bouncing back to reach an all-time high, only to start falling again to close at it’s lowest point in two months.

A similar pattern has been happening with the Aussie dollar, reaching a high of $0.64US cents mid-February, then losing momentum, and now hovering around $0.62US cents.

Turbocharge your super before 30 June

More than half of us set a new financial goal at the beginning of 2025, according to ASIC’s Moneysmart website. While most financial goals include saving money and paying down debts, the months leading up to 30 June provide an opportunity to review your super balance to look at ways to boost your retirement savings.

What you need to consider first

If you have more than one super account, consolidating them to one account may be an option for you. Consolidating your super could save you from paying multiple fees, however, if you have insurance inside your super, you may be at risk of losing it, so contact us before making any changes.ⁱ

How to boost your retirement savings

Making additional contributions on top of the super guarantee paid by your employer could make a big difference to your retirement balance thanks to the magic of compounding interest.

There are a few ways to boost your super before 30 June:

Concessional contributions (before tax)

These contributions can be made from either your pre-tax salary via a salary-sacrifice arrangement through your employer or using after-tax money and depositing funds directly into your super account.

Apart from the increase to your super balance, you may pay less tax (depending on your current marginal rate).ⁱⁱ

Check to see what your current year to date contributions are so any additional contributions you may make don’t exceed the concessional (before-tax) contributions cap, which is $30,000 from 1 July 2024.ⁱⁱⁱ

Non-concessional contributions (after tax)

This type of contribution is also known as a personal contribution. It is important not to exceed the cap on contributions, which is set at $120,000 from 1 July 2024.^iv

If you exceed the concessional contributions cap (before tax) of $30,000 per annum, any additional contributions made are taxed at your marginal tax rate less a 15 per cent tax offset to account for the contributions tax already paid by your super fund.

Exceeding the non-concessional contributions cap will see a tax of 47 per cent levied on the excess contributions.

Carry forward (catch-up) concessional contributions

If you’ve had a break from work or haven’t reached the maximum contributions cap for the past five years, this type of super contribution could help boost your balance – especially if you’ve received a lump sum of money like a work bonus.

These contributions are unused concessional contributions from the previous five financial years and only available to those whose super accounts are less than $500,000.

There are strict rules around this type of contribution, and they are complex so it’s important to get advice before making a catch-up contribution.

Downsizer contributions

If you are over 55 years, have owned your home for 10 years and are looking to sell, you may be able to make a non-concessional super contribution of as much as $300,000 per person – $600,000 if you are a couple. You must make the contribution to your super within 90 days of receiving the proceeds of the sale of your home.

Spouse contributions

There are two ways you can make spouse super contributions, you could:

• split contributions you have already made to your own super, by rolling them over to your spouse’s super – known as a contributions-splitting super benefit, or
• contribute directly to your spouse’s super, treated as their non-concessional contribution, which may entitle you to a tax offset of $540 per year if they earn less than $40,000 per annum

Again, there are a few restrictions and eligibility requirements for this type of contribution.

Get in touch for more information about your options and for help with a super strategy that could help you achieve a rewarding retirement.

i Transferring or consolidating your super | Australian Taxation Office

ii Salary sacrificing super | Australian Taxation Office

iii Concessional contributions cap | Australian Taxation Office

iv Non-concessional contributions cap | Australian Taxation Office

How political events affect the markets

From the economy bending policies of Trump 2.0 to the growing strength of the far right in Europe, the new alliance between Russia and the United States, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the US President’s vow to upturn world trade rules, the markets are certainly navigating tricky times.

In recent months we’ve seen volatility in some areas but cautious optimism in others in a reflection of the hand-in-glove relationship between politics and markets.

Of course, economic policies, laws and regulations– think tax increases or decreases, new business regulations or even referendums – have a big effect on how investors allocate their portfolios and that impacts market performance.

In 2016, when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, the UK pound plunged and more than US$2 trillion was wiped off global equity markets.ⁱ

In the following four years until Brexit was finally achieved in 2020, the FTSE 100 performed poorly compared to other markets as domestic and international investors looked elsewhere to avoid risk. While it has risen since a massive drop during the coronavirus pandemic, the exodus of companies from the London Stock Exchange continues with almost 90 departures in 2024.ⁱⁱ

Interest rate movements and any hint of political instability can also bring about a sell off or a rally in prices, with companies holding off on capital investment and causing economic growth to slow.ⁱⁱⁱ

Global oil prices rose 30 per cent in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine causing European stock markets to plunge 4 per cent in a single day.^iv Since then, oil prices have fluctuated and are now back to pre-war levels and gold has reached new heights as investors globally look for a safe haven from high geopolitical risks.

Do elections have an effect?

Elections, which almost always cause market disruptions during the uncertainty of the campaign period and shortly after the vote is known, have featured strongly in the past six months or so.

A review of 75 years of US market data has found that, while there may be outbursts of volatility in the lead up to the vote, there’s minimal impact on financial market performance in the medium to long term. The data shows that market returns are typically more dependent on economic and inflation trends rather than election results.^v

Nonetheless, the noisy 2024 US Presidential campaign saw some ups and downs in markets during the Democrats’ upheaval and the switch to Kamala Harris as candidate. Donald Trump’s various policy announcements on taxes, immigration, government cost cutting and tariffs both buoyed and dismayed investors.

Analysis by Macquarie University researchers of the three days before and after election day found significant abnormal returns in US equities immediately after the vote.^vi

But the surge was short-lived as investor sentiment fluctuated. Small cap equities with more domestic exposure experienced the highest returns while the energy sector also saw substantial gains, in anticipation of regulatory changes.

While currently the S&P500 and the Nasdaq have both gained overall since the election, there’s been extreme share price volatility.

How Australia has fared

Meanwhile, any impact on markets ahead of Australia’s upcoming federal election  has so far been muted thanks to the volume of world events.

The on-again off-again US tariffs are causing more concern here for both policymakers and investors. Tariffs on our exports could mean higher prices and a drop in demand for our goods and services, leading to economic uncertainty.

In early February, the Australian share market took a dive immediately after President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, wiping off around $50 billion from the ASX 200. They recovered slightly only to fall again later as the Reserve Bank cut interest rates. In the US, some tech companies delayed or cancelled their listing plans because of the volatility and uncertainty caused by the announcements.^vii

Amid a turbulent start to 2025, most economists agree the markets are unlikely to hit last year’s 7.49 per cent achieved by the S&P ASX 200.

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock is similarly downbeat on the prospects for the year, saying uncertainty about the global outlook remains “significant”.^viii

Please get in touch if you’re watching world events and wondering about the impact on your portfolio.

i Post-Brexit global equity loss of over $2 trillion worst ever -S&P

ii London Stock Exchange suffers biggest exodus since financial crisis

iii Policy Instability and the Risk-Return Trade-Off | St. Louis Fed

iv Why Financial Markets Are Sensitive to Political Uncertainty

v How Presidential Elections Affect the Stock Market | U.S. Bank

vi 2024 presidential election: U.S. equities surged, then retreated, after Trump’s victory

vii They’ve Been Waiting Years to Go Public. They’re Still Waiting. – The New York Times

viii Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA

Forget forgetting – simple ways to improve your memory

We’ve all heard the old saying ‘an elephant never forgets’- but unlike elephants, we humans certainly don’t have flawless recall. Forgetting where you left your keys or the name of the person you met last week, is all too familiar. Memory lapses happen to the best of us, but there are ways to sharpen your memory and boost brainpower.

How are memories formed?

Memory works through three key stages: encoding, storage, and retrieval. Encoding is when the brain processes information from your senses and turns it into a format that can be stored. Next, short-term memories are stored briefly, while long-term memories are kept in the brain called the hippocampus. Finally, retrieval is recalling stored memories, triggered by cues such as sights, sounds, or emotions. While memory helps us navigate life, it can sometimes be imperfect, influenced by a range of factors.

The good news is there are things you can do to help your brain stay sharp.

Tips to improve memory

Sleep: your brain’s power nap

We know that feeling when we’re sleep-deprived: foggy and wondering why we walked into a room in the first place. Well, there is a reason for that, your brain processes and stores new information while you sleep and deep sleep helps to consolidate memories, so the more restful your slumber, the better your memory.

Exercise: more than just physical gains

It’s not just your muscles that benefit from a good workout—your brain does too! Studies have shown that regular physical exercise can improve memory and cognitive function. When you move, your heart pumps more oxygen to your brain, and new brain cells are formed. Plus, exercise helps to reduce stress, which can negatively impact your memory.

You don’t need to run marathons or lift massive weights, a simple brisk walk can work wonders.

Stress less: your memory needs it

Stress is like that annoying cold caller who just won’t leave you alone. It messes with your ability to think clearly, hampers memory recall, and can even damage your brain over time. Stress, especially chronic stress, can interfere with the part of your brain responsible for memory so finding ways to unwind, like taking a warm bath, or simply taking deep breaths, can help support memory.

Keep your brain engaged: never stop learning

Your brain functions in a similar manner to a muscle—the more you use it, the stronger it gets. Keep your brain engaged; do crosswords and jigsaw puzzles. Learn new things, whether it’s a new language or a musical instrument to build neural connections and keep your memory sharp. The trick is to constantly challenge yourself – by the time you sound OK on that instrument, your brain is not working as hard, so step things up a notch or take on a new endeavour.

Memory techniques help

Did you know that ancient Greeks used to memorise long speeches using specific techniques? One popular method is called the memory palace technique. It’s creating a vivid mental image of a place you’re familiar with, like your house, and mentally placing the things you want to remember in different rooms or corners.

For example, if you need to remember a list of groceries, imagine placing bananas in the kitchen, milk in the living room, and bread in the hallway. When it’s time to recall the list, you just “walk” through your memory palace and pick up the items. It may sound a bit wacky, but it works!

Or, who better to look to for memory techniques than Dave Farrow, Guinness Record holder for memorizing 59 decks of shuffled cards, which is an astounding 3,068 cards.ⁱ In addition to the memory palace technique, Dave uses a quirky trick: looking up. Nobody knows why looking up works when we are trying to recall something, but we do know that it sends more energy to your cerebral cortex and hippocampus, the memory centres of the brain.

Remember, your brain is your most valuable asset—treat it well and try some of these strategies. Before you know it, you might be impressing your friends with how sharp your memory is (and avoiding turning the house upside down to find your keys!).

i https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-decks-of-playing-cards-memorized-single-sighting